the bottom line: 2014 articles archive home
Outlandish predictions
Not only do economic, financial and political predictors miss the big surprises, but they are quite ashamed to say anything outlandish to their clients — and yet events, it turns out, are almost always outlandish.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014 ... more
Back to where we were
Because so many influential factors are so unusual, investors are struggling to determine if stocks are still cheap or at least reasonably priced, or extremely expensive. The decision to stay in the market – for those who haven’t yet been swayed into thinking it’s not an option – shouldn’t be based solely on the likelihood of another crash.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014 ... more
Dumb things, lesson learnt & a quiz
Morgan Housel says he has a front-row seat to the downside of financial journalism: gibberish, nonsense, garbage, and drivel ... China’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rates on Friday, as policy makers tried to counter a deepening slowdown ... FT Alphaville and the FT’s US markets team hosted a night of drinks and trivia in New York on Wednesday last week.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014 ... more
When there’s fear everywhere.
Fear can take many forms, including the fear that high-flying assets will come crashing back to earth. But the biggest threat to our portfolios may be ourselves. Fear affects the way we think. We are predisposed to focus more on the negative.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014 ... more
True or false?
The main article in The Economist in March 1999 was famously titled, "Cheap Oil: The next shock?"

Besides bulls and bears there are lame ducks in the market.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014 ... more
Why do we assume we are less likely to make mistakes than other investors? Too many investors are confident, for instance, that they will be greedy when others are fearful. Few assume they will be the fearful ones.
Tuesday, November 4, 2014 ... more
How much longer?
Since the low in the global equity market in March 2009, the MSCI World index has risen roughly 180% in total return terms, generating an annualised return of a remarkable 20%. Last year was one of the strongest years on record for equity markets.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014 ... more
Experts: Best avoided
Last week was an interesting week in the markets, which brought out the ‘experts’ with their usual prognosis for the future.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014 ... more
It ain’t easy
Most markets are down from recent highs, but only a tad and probably not enough to silence those who think that investors have again fallen prey to “irrational exuberance”.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014 ... more
Bill Gross
Bill Gross caused a stir in global stock and bond markets last month when he left Pimco, ahead of what he called “an imminent palace coup,” to join rival firm Janus Capital.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014 ... more
What you might have learnt ...
... on the internet last week, from Eugene Fama, turkeys, Jim Rogers, jeff Miller, data at A Wealth of Common Sense and James Montier.
Monday, September 29, 2014 ... more
Kenny G & the daily struggle
According to Benjamin Graham Mr Market is a manic-depressive: emotional, euphoric, moody, one day high, the next low. But that hasn’t been obvious of late. A better description, at least of our market’s behaviour, would be lethargic, maybe even downright boring.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014 ... more
Poor Richard's Almanac
Peter Kaufman has compiled Poor Charlie's Almanac a collection of speeches and talks by Charlie Munger, the silent "I have nothing to add" partner to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014 ... more
Things to do while waiting
If you feel you’ve no choice but to get into cash and wait for the next crash so that you can buy at the bottom again here are a few things you might want to do while whittling away the time.
Tuesday, September 9, 2014 ... more
Economic growth is important if businesses are to grow and prosper, and there is a growing belief that Asia, Latin America, and Africa are the future source of that growth.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014 ... more
It's all a fugazi Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Education, inequality and a little optimism Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Contrarian Tuesday, August 12, 2014
The bottom line Tuesday, August 5, 2014
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