Wednesday, June 3, 2020   8:11:32 AM
Mark Lilla, a professor of humanities at Columbia University, begins an article in the New York Times last month with a quote from Thomas Hobbes: The best prophet, is the best guesser. “That would seem to be the last word on our capacity to predict the future,” says Lilla. “We can’t. But it is a truth we have never been able to accept."
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And ambiguity
For the most part investors ignore uncertainty. In general people operate on the basis that there’s a measurable risk in investment but if you’re reasonably careful in how you invest you can mitigate against it. But uncertainty is not risk. ...
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Tuesday, June 2, 2020
The second-best plan that you can execute is better than the best plan that you can’t execute. Will you make more money if you allocate at least 80% of your assets to stocks and other risk assets? Yes. But how will you hold on during a gut-wrenching ...
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Thursday, May 28, 2020
This & that
Occasional bouts of extreme volatility are a known and expected feature of the stock market. Predicting when they occur or what specifically will set them off is another matter entirely. Nothing in life is free – the price of being able to ...
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Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Don’t hesitate to go to cash and sit things out. “If I’m wrong, I couldn’t care less because I’ve stopped worrying about ‘the fear of missing out’ and I’m more concerned with respecting risk and playing defence. Don’t believe everything ...
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Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Time paused
Birds are not late. A dog does not check its watch. Deer do not fret over passing birthdays. Man alone measures time. Man alone chimes the hour. And, because of this, man alone suffers a paralyzing fear that no other creature endures ...
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Friday, May 22, 2020
Founders & family
While it was both a frustration and a great opportunity, fundamentals didn’t matter during the C-19 selloff. That meant the “rocks uphill” companies sold off with equal vigour to companies that are managed by Builders with better narratives. ...
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Thursday, May 21, 2020
a non-financial read ...
Everybody knows that pestilences have a way of recurring in the world, yet somehow we find it hard to believe in ones that crash down on our heads from a blue sky. There have been as many plagues as wars in history, yet always plagues and wars take people equally by surprise.
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the Bottom Line ...
"While there’s something to be said for doing nothing when it comes to investing - minimizing mistakes is half the battle – you need to avoid what T Boone Pickens called the ‘ready-aim-aim-aim-aim’ syndrome. “You have to be willing to fire,” said Pickens. “Learn from mistakes. Remember the doors that smashed your fingers the first time and be more careful the next trip through.”
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