Mark Lilla, a professor of humanities at Columbia University, begins an article in the New York Times last month with a quote from Thomas Hobbes: The best prophet, is the best guesser. “That would seem to be the last word on our capacity to predict the future,” says Lilla. “We can’t. But it is a truth we have never been able to accept."
For the most part investors ignore uncertainty. In general people operate on the basis that there’s a measurable risk in investment but if you’re reasonably careful in how you invest you can mitigate against it. But uncertainty is not risk. ...
... read more
Tuesday, June 2, 2020
The second-best plan that you can execute is better than the best plan that you can’t execute. Will you make more money if you allocate at least 80% of your assets to stocks and other risk assets? Yes. But how will you hold on during a gut-wrenching ...
... read more
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Occasional bouts of extreme volatility are a known and expected feature of the stock market. Predicting when they occur or what specifically will set them off is another matter entirely. Nothing in life is free – the price of being able to ...
... read more
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Don’t hesitate to go to cash and sit things out. “If I’m wrong, I couldn’t care less because I’ve stopped worrying about ‘the fear of missing out’ and I’m more concerned with respecting risk and playing defence. Don’t believe everything ...
... read more
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Birds are not late. A dog does not check its watch. Deer do not fret over passing birthdays. Man alone measures time. Man alone chimes the hour. And, because of this, man alone suffers a paralyzing fear that no other creature endures ...
... read more
Friday, May 22, 2020
While it was both a frustration and a great opportunity, fundamentals didn’t matter during the C-19 selloff. That meant the “rocks uphill” companies sold off with equal vigour to companies that are managed by Builders with better narratives. ...
... read more
Thursday, May 21, 2020
Everybody knows that pestilences have a way of recurring in the world, yet somehow we find it hard to believe in ones that crash down on our heads from a blue sky. There have been as many plagues as wars in history, yet always plagues and wars take people equally by surprise.
"While there’s something to be said for doing nothing when it comes to investing - minimizing mistakes is half the battle – you need to avoid what T Boone Pickens called the ‘ready-aim-aim-aim-aim’ syndrome. “You have to be willing to fire,” said Pickens. “Learn from mistakes. Remember the doors that smashed your fingers the first time and be more careful the next trip through.”
Michel Pireu & Associates cc, the owners of this website, are active stockmarket traders.
The company disclaims all liability for any loss, damage,
injury or expense however caused, arising from the use of,
or reliance upon, in any manner, the information provided through
this service and does not warrant the truth, accuracy or completeness
of the information provided. The company's permission is required to
reproduce the contents in any form including, capture into a database,
website, intranet or extranet.
