Wednesday, April 24, 2019   8:32:25 PM
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In an article at FutureBlind Max Olson suggested that there are at least six basic areas in which an investor can acquire an edge, they are: psychology, analysis, information, inefficiency, risk management and cost of funds.

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Everything gets destroyed a hundred times faster than it is built up. It takes one day to tear down something that might have taken ten years to build. If the economy starts to go with the kind of leverage that is in it, it will deteriorate so fast that people's heads will spin. I hate to believe it, but in my gut that is what I think is going to happen. I know from studying history that credit eventually kills all great societies. We borrowed against the future, and soon we will have to pay.
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- Paul Tudor-Jones (1989)
 
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Mispricing
An unsettling fact of Wall Street today is that some of the same people who accurately predicted the housing bubble are now describing another bubble, whose collapse will make the financial crisis of 2008 look mild. Perhaps the most famous ...
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Thursday, April 18, 2019
Numbers
You can see that there are a lot of numbers floating around Wall Street, that the game is played with numbers... Numbers reported as sales and earnings, and earnings, in anybody’s systems, are one of the most important factors ...
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Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Fighting the gloom
Did you believe those financial pundits in 2009 - 2010 that were saying it was a great time to buy? Or were you too negative to even contemplate it? If so, you were not alone. There was no shortage of dark-side input to factor into your investment equation ...
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Pessimism
"For reasons I have never understood, people like to hear that the world is going to hell," historian Deirdre N. McCloskey once told the New York Times. It’s true. Despite the record of things getting better for most people most of the time ...
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Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Paying to dream
There is a special moment when everyone sees that something amazing is coming out of mystery and then they will pay a lot more to know more about this strange new thing. Later on, when mystery has given birth, when they know more ...
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Thursday, April 11, 2019
Regression to the mean
Observations over three-year periods should show triple the variance of observations over one year, and observations over a decade should show ten times the variance of annual observations. If, on the other hand, the numbers are not random ...
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Wednesday, April 10, 2019
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a non-financial read ...
Should we care how fish feel? In his 1789 treatise An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation, English philosopher Jeremy Bentham articulated an idea that has been central to debates about animal welfare. When considering our ethical obligations to other animals, Bentham wrote, the most important question is not, “Can they reason? nor, Can they talk? but, Can they suffer?”
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the Bottom Line ...
Successful investors want to beat the market. “In my view, that’s the definition of successful investing,” says Howard Marks, “doing better than the market and other investors. To accomplish that, you need either good luck or to be better than average, your thinking has to be better than that of others. You must find an edge they don’t have.” And there lies the problem.
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